Análise da propensão a consumir no Brasil entre diferentes grupos populacionais no período de 2002-2003 e 2017-2018 : uma perspectiva keynesiana

Abstract

Through this dissertation it is aimed to analyze the propensity to consume of Brazilians from different population groups in the period 2002-2003 and 2017-2018. To this end, some basic statistics of income, consumption and Average Propensity to Consume were analyzed in the categories position in occupation, color or race and geographic macro-region. In addition, probability density counterfactual curves were estimated in order to dimension the different compositions of the propensity to consume of Brazilians. Following the assumptions of Keynes' Principle of Effective Demand, it is considered as a hypothesis that a more socially just income redistribution positively affects aggregate demand by raising consumption. Thus, groups with lower income levels are expected to have higher propensities to consume. To support the empirical analyses, it was built a reference based on Keynes' main ideas, focusing on the dynamics of consumption with aggregate demand and on the Fundamental Psychological Law. In addition, some of the main aspects of Brazil's economic history since the 1990s were reviewed, highlighting some relevant macroeconomic variables for the formation of income and consumption. To achieve the established objective, data from the POF of 2002-2003 and 2017-2018 were used, from which the average propensity to consume of Brazilians from different population groups was analyzed, according to income, such as workers and employers, whites and non-whites, and geographic macro-regions. For the analysis, in addition to descriptive statistics, estimations were performed using the DFL method, based on counterfactual simulations of the Average Propensity to Consume. The results achieved allowed the conclusion that when simulating the distribution of the average propensity to consume in 2002-2003 for 2017-2018, the values tend to reduce in their average - which probably may have been caused by the effects of the economic crisis (which was established between 2014-2016) on income and consumption. In the specific applications it was shown that the groups representing the lowest incomes have the highest propensities to consume, which was most evident for factor separating Brazilians above and below the 10th and 90th income percentile. The results obtained can contribute to an understanding of the dynamics of income and consumption in Brazil, directing future studies towards the question of the distribution of resources and their impact on economic development.