Análise da relação comercial bilateral Brasil-EUA: uma aplicação da Lei de Thirlwall Multissetorial para o período de 2000 a 2019

Abstract

The debate on how international trade affects economic growth began to intensify in Brazil at the end of the 1980s, mainly as a result of the globalization process and the greater economic and commercial openness of the country. As the study of international trade and its effects on the economies of countries has advanced, models have emerged that directly relate trade to the economic growth of nations. One of these models was developed by Thirlwall (1979), known as "Thirlwall's Law" (LT), which states that a country's long-term economic growth depends on the dynamism of its exports and imports. The debate about this export-led and balance of payments constrained growth model evolved into a multisectoral approach, developed by Araujo and Lima (2007) and known as "Thirlwall's Law Multisectoral" (LT Multisectoral). In this approach, the authors state that countries should identify and prioritize their most dynamic sector(s) - usually high-technology products - given that they can result in a relatively larger contribution in their economic growth strategy. Given this, the objective of the present study is to analyze Brazil's trade relationship with the United States in the period from 2000 to 2019, seeking to discuss about the income elasticities of the basic, semi-manufactured and manufactured product sectors, and analyzing the sectoral composition of Brazilian export and import schedules. For this purpose, the empirical analysis of this study was based on time series econometrics, especially the VAR (Vector Autoregressive) and VECM (Error Correction Vector) methodologies. The results indicated that the Brazilian economy suffered from restrictions in its balance of payments in the period studied, mainly due to the sectorial composition of its exports and imports in relation to the United States. Thus, the largest sectorial participation in the total of Brazilian exports corresponds to products of low aggregate value (less technological intensity), and the largest sectorial participation in the total of imports corresponds to products of medium-high and high technology. Thus, these results, together with the estimated sectoral income elasticities, indicate the validity of the LT Multisectoral for the Brazil-US trade relationship in the period.