Projeção dos impactos no Sistema Interligado Nacional(SIN) em diferentes cenários de mudanças climáticas

Abstract

In the world, only 2.5% of the world's water resources are available for human activities. Of this, approximately 99.7% is difficult to access for consumption. Thus, it is essential to study the 0.3% of water resources available for the population's uses. Brazil is a country with large contributions of water resources, of the available in the world, about 12% is in the country. This study aims to study the possible impacts of climate change on the National Interconnected System (SIN). To carry out the analysis, 4 global climate models were used: BESM, CanESM, HadGEM2-ES and Miroc5, regionalized by the Eta regional climate model, developed by CPTEC / INPE, in 3 differ scenarios: History (1960-1989), RCP 4.5 (2010-2099) and RCP 8.5 (2010-2099) to obtain data on precipitation and evapotranspiration. To obtain the flows, two concentrated rain-flow models were used: SMAP and MEL. The study shows some concern about the long-term operationality of the BIPS. The studied basins may suffer from loss of flow, which consequently impacts the total capacity of the system. The Midwest / Southeast and Northeast subsystems that may suffer the greatest impacts, and in the first months of the year they can check more than 50% of the current capacity. The SIN, as a whole, may suffer losses in the same proportion as the Midwest Southeast subsystem, since it represents 50% of the SIN's capacity. Finally, it is necessary to expand studies on climate change and its impacts, the hydrological model tool coupled with climate models obtained acceptable results, which are great ways for the country's decision makers to try to mitigate the impacts of climate change.